The final data on the GDP of the eurozone between April and June surprised in the best way. Eurostat applies a very small cut (one tenth), on its preliminary calculation, to place the advance of the Monetary Union at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.
This is a very remarkable development considering the period in which it occurred, with the Ukraine war already raging and legacy issues from 2021 (high inflation and supply chain disruptions) still playing out.
However, these circumstances are not enough to spur the optimism of the experts. On the contrary, analysts show great skepticism about the latest National Accounts data and the truth is that there are compelling reasons for this.
Everything points to a very conjunctural rebound in activity in the second quarter, derived from the expectations of the first summer in two years without Covid restrictions and very focused on the services sector.
Despite the strength of the GDP in the second quarter, the leading indicators point to a stagnation already in the summer
The best proof of this is the complete stagnation in which an economy as industrial and exporting as the German one is already mired. More important now are the indicators for the third quarter for economists and they throw bad news, at a community level, on multiple fronts.
It is enough to remember the setbacks shown, as of July, in consumer and investor confidence, activity in factories and even foreign trade (with a clear increase in the trade deficit). Everything points to a stagnation of GDP in the eurozone already underway this summer and, what is more worrying, paves the way for a contraction of the economy from autumn, fueled by the unstoppable rise of the CPI and the foreseeable energy rationing .