The Risk Of An Oil Recession Has Been Overestimated

The Threadneedle (Lux) – Enhanced Commodities fund has not had a good decade, with an annualized return below -5% in 10 years that have been difficult for basic resources. However, the commodity portfolio manager of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Nicolas Robin, considers that the prices of the main raw materials in the market are now inviting to buy and there is now an opportunity that should not be missed.

What is most conditioning the commodity market at the moment?

There are three elements, mainly. The first is deglobalization. What has happened in this crisis is that the need has arisen, on the part of many actors in the developed world, to secure the production of Asia that is disappearing.

This is going to generate a lot of investment in production infrastructure now and for this many raw materials are needed. The second point is the lack of investment in energy, something that is going to have to be fixed in the medium term because fossil fuels are going to be needed for the energy transition and because of current energy prices. The third factor is geopolitical risk, since one must think about securing energy sources.

The rise of the dollar is affecting raw materials downwards. Can it be worse than 20 years ago?

The rally in the dollar does not help, but the situation is different from what it was 20 years ago, because the United States is a net exporter of oil, and there is not that impact from the increase in crude oil prices as there was before, when they had to pay for imported oil. That has an impact on the correlation, because when the dollar rises almost all the commodities that are priced in dollars become more expensive, and that has a negative impact on prices in dollars.

Do you expect a recession that will punish the demand for raw materials?

I think that Europe is not in a comfortable situation due to the whole gas issue, so I expect there to be a significant slowdown, especially in winter. But if you look at the United States, the situation is very positive. It has an advantageous position because they have oil, cereals to a certain extent, metal… And because the natural gas market is still very domestic in the United States. It does not have much capacity to export.

Can the increase in the prices of raw materials affect the production of materials itself, due to the increase in costs? How expensive has it been?

I don’t have exact numbers on this, but for example, if you look at copper, it’s very sensitive to the fact that mining is going down. When you were mining copper of a certain quality 20 years ago, it probably doesn’t exist anymore, so you are mining copper of a lower quality. A significant part of production costs is fuel for machinery, and as we have higher energy prices, that has an impact. It is an inflationary factor.

What prospects do you have now for oil?

We have just seen how OPEC has cut production, by about 2 million barrels per day. The actual numbers are likely to be less than that figure, probably by 1 million barrels a day, which is going to come mainly from Saudi production. Now there has been a separation between fundamentals and prices. I think the impact of the recession has been overestimated, and I hope that the deterioration in demand is not as high as discounted. The oil market now has a fairly tight supply and demand situation and unless there is a very deep recession, more like what we had during the lockdowns, the market now appears to be in good health. And this looks set to continue.

The UN Food Price Index is at a high of 2011, when we saw the Arab springs. What is happening with agricultural resources?

One of the main factors affecting food prices is the cost of energy, because you need it for machinery and to produce fertilizers. In addition, Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of fertilizers, and as long as this problem is not solved, the markets will come under continuous pressure. And the weather factor is also a problem. We have had great droughts in Europe and in the United States the levels of the warehouses were already quite low, and there has been no opportunity to increase them. Looking ahead, 12 to 18 months, I think they’re going to continue to be very low, with no big changes on this front for a while.

Ibex Banks Rise 6% On Average On The Stock Market In The Week

That this year is being the banking year is indisputable, boosted by the tightening of monetary policy to tame runaway inflation. And this has been reflected in the stock market for another week, with the five Ibex 35 banking entities rising an average of 6% since Monday.

Bankinter closed the day on Thursday as the second most bullish in the selective, with a rise of 3.5% , and at annual highs that leave it at 2020 levels, after the presentation of successful results for the first three quarters of the year, with a net profit of 430 million euros, 21% more than in the same period of the previous year. With this result, the entity exceeds the forecasts of the Bloomberg market consensus, which expected profits of 411 million.

In the year, the shares of the company led by Pedro Guerrero also have the wind in their favor, where it rises 38.4% and is the second most bullish in the club of the 35, only behind CaixaBank. Thus, the consensus of experts gives their titles a run of 8%. Nuria Álvarez, an analyst at Renta 4, explains in this regard: “The results have been above our estimates and those of the consensus, highlighting the growth in interest margin, 13% more than Renta 4 expected and 9 % more than the consensus expected. A strength that more than compensates for net commissions somewhat weaker than expected (-4% of Renta 4 and -1% of the consensus), “he concludes.

Three of the ten analysis houses that reviewed Bankinter’s titles yesterday increased their valuation. Among them, Alphavalue, which goes from 5.69 to 5.84 euros, and that yesterday executed an increase in the target prices of the five or entities of the Spanish index.

After Bankinter, which has given the starting signal in terms of being accountable to the market, is Sabadell, which will present its accounts on October 23. The company, which is the third most bullish of the year, is the only Ibex bank that raises advice to hold and not to buy.

Banco Santander is the next, and will present results on the 26th. The company notes a rebound of 11% since last October 12 , a session in which its titles were 3.5% below their annual lows. CaixaBank and BBVA –both, purchase– are the last to render accounts, on October 28.

Symptoms of the BQ.1 variant

With a current pandemic scenario in which population immunity offers high protection against the predominant omicron variant, the natural course of the virus evolves, giving rise to new variants and subvariants. Among them, one of the candidates to become the predominant one in the coming months, and one of the most worrying at the moment, is BQ.1 (and BQ.1.1), whose presence has already been confirmed in Spain.

This concern is manifested in the latest update of the epidemiological situation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Spain , published last Monday, October 17, with data relating to week 38 of 2022 ( from September 19 to 25 ). Although no case with these subvariants has been recorded in patients in this report, its rapid expansion in other parts of the world is alerted.

“At the moment, although at a global level, BA.5 and the lineages derived from it without important changes continue to be dominant in Spain and in the world, numerous lineages with mutations have been detected that could be related to a greater escape from the response whose prevalence is growing, among them some with few differences but that have been detected at significant levels, such as BA.4.6 or BF.7, and others, detected in much lower percentages, but with much more differences in their mutation profile with respect to the dominant lineages that, in vitro, demonstrate a greater capacity to evade the immune response, among which the following stand out: BA.2.3.20, BA.2.75.2, CA.1, BR.2, BN.1, BM.1.1 .1, BU.1, BQ.1.1, and XBB”.

At the moment, without patients in Spain
First detected in July in India and Canada, they have been easily introduced to other regions. This is the case of the United Kingdom, where its Public Health Agency (UKHSA) has reported that this new variant, a descendant of the well-known BA.5, has a growth capacity that is 29% greater than its parent . Or in the United States, where the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has reported that 11% of the new cases detected in the country during the previous week correspond to the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants.

Meanwhile, in Spain, and despite the fact that the new subvariants have not yet been sighted in any patient in that week 38 of 2022, the truth is that it can be expected that their presence in our country will be confirmed in the next updates.

This suspicion arises after the recent announcement by the Department of Health of the Generalitat , from which they confirm that BQ.1 has been detected in the study of the community’s wastewater, as confirmed by the Secretary of Public Health of the Generalitat , Carmen Cabezas, in statements to the RAC1 chain . “The subvariant (BQ.1) would be more transmissible but not necessarily more serious,” the secretary clarified.

More contagious but not more dangerous
In the absence of new data being published in the coming weeks or months on the characteristics of these new subvariants, everything seems to indicate that they will not be more serious , although they will have a greater transmission capacity.

Also, a greater ability to dodge the immunity acquired to date. “That’s why people are concerned about BQ.1.1, because of its doubling time and the fact that it seems to elude important monoclonal antibodies,” said White House top medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci . , speaking to CBS.

Regarding the protection that the new vaccines adapted to the latest variants can offer, Dr. Eric Topol , professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research (USA) and director of the Scripps Translational Research Institute, considered, in statements to the Fortune portal , that We will not know to what extent the new variants will avoid current vaccines until their presence does not cover 30 or 50% of cases in some region. However, he ventured to predict that “it will not end the effectiveness of the vaccine, but it could make a dent in the protection against hospitalizations and deaths.”

In this sense, Fauci added that, “almost certainly”, the new drugs will provide “some” protection against them (BQ.1 and BQ.1.1), since they were designed to address their close relative, BA.5.

Regarding their symptoms, and from what is known to date, they are similar to the predominant variants . These are fever, cough and sneezing, runny nose, headache, throat and muscle aches, tiredness, loss of appetite or diarrhea. It remains to be seen whether, like the first variants, they will also cause loss of smell and taste.

Castilla y León launches Leading To Promote Women In Business Management

The CEOE in Castilla y León and the Ministry of Family and Equal Opportunities have launched this Wednesday a new edition, the fourth already, of the Women and Management Program (‘We lead’) with the participation of thirty women who will be offered training in order to improve their skills in managerial positions within small and medium-sized enterprises and family companies.

To participate in ‘Leading’ it is necessary to meet the triple requirement of being a woman, a manager and a company leader and the objective pursued by the organizers is none other than to enhance their leadership and facilitate their promotion, acquiring skills, helping them understand when vital they are, what challenges they face and reinforce their knowledge to lead teams.

The profile of the participants, from all over Castilla y León, is of women with relevant positions within companies linked to diverse sectors, such as Graphic Arts, Wine, Communication, Transport, Construction, Digital Marketing, Senior Citizens, IT and People Services with Mental Illness, among others.

The training program consists of a double aspect, team or group and individual, with sessions that are held at the CEOE CyL headquarters, in Valladolid, with a first session this Wednesday and two next ones on November 10 and 24, at which will be followed by two more individual ones.

During the presentation of this new edition, an act in which the vice president of CEOE CyL, Ángela de Miguel, and the director of the Women of the Board, María Victoria Moreno, the first of them, participated, in statements collected by Europa Press, explained that it is a leadership and empowerment initiative in senior management with a gender perspective for women in the Community, “very successful both due to the satisfaction surveys of the participants and the results obtained”, referring to the increase in access of women to managerial positions in companies.

at the European head
In fact, De Miguel has brought up the results of the latest edition of the 18th Woman in Business Report, according to which 36 percent of management positions in medium-sized Spanish companies are held by women, above the average European Union, 33 percent, with which “Spain is at the top of the ten best countries in gender equality in leadership positions”.

But in addition, a study by CEOE points out that closing the gender gap in small and medium-sized and family businesses would contribute to creating 2.8 million jobs, generating 131.1 billion euros–10 percent of GDP in 2021– and it would reduce unemployment by 1.8 million unemployed, with which the employed population would increase by 14 percent.

For her part, the director of Women on the Board, María Victoria Moreno, recalled that there is still a long way to go regarding the incorporation of women into leadership positions in the business world but, in this sense, she has used to point out that the concept of equality is not exclusive but rather the opposite .

“We are not rivals but accomplices, and for this reason I claim the role of women in all orders of society in equality and with projection of their identity. For this reason, the new leadership models should be plural and diverse, as also is society”, he clarified, before concluding transferring all the support and commitment of his department to the program.

Green Bond Investors Demand More Return

The year 2022 is being historic for fixed income . The rapid rise in rates carried out by central banks to combat inflation has caused a sharp adjustment in the price of all assets . In the case of bonds, the falls in prices are in double digits, comparable to those suffered by equities. Visit the specialized portal elEconomista Sustainable investment and ESG.

The green debt is not exempt, far from it, from these declines . The global green bond index, the Bloomberg MSCI Global Green Bond , sank, by price, 29%, and the Bloomberg MSCI Global Aggregate Sustainability , which includes a broader basket of sustainable debt, fell 22.3%; hence not a single sustainable bond fund is spared losses in 2022.

If we focus on green bonds, the collapse in their price has triggered their yield to its historical maximum, above 4.1% (in fixed income, price falls translate into increases in profitability). A global basket of global green bonds already outperforms a similar basket of vanilla bonds (which is at 3.8%), an outlier, which had not happened until 2022 (green bond data starts in 2014, year in which the first issues of this type were made).

Myths that collapse
In this abnormal market scenario, several myths have collapsed, such as that fixed income is fixed , or that financing with green bonds is cheaper for issuers than doing it with traditional debt. Currently, investors are not necessarily willing to give up some of the return just because the bond is green.

“Investors, in times of stability, are willing to pay a little more for the ‘green’, but now they know that they will be able to buy cheaper in a few days,” explains Julián Romero (Ofiso).

In the first half of 2022, only 20% of global green bond issuances achieved a greenium ( green premium ). In other words, only in 2 out of 10 placements did investors pay a price premium due to the fact that the bond was green and not traditional. This is revealed by a study by the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), a reference organization in this type of issue, which analyzed the conditions in which 50 non-sovereign placements were carried out around the world between January and June of this year.

“It is not that green bonds are worth less now,” clarifies Julián Romero, president of Ofiso, the Spanish Observatory of Sustainable Financing. “What happens is that investors, in times of stability, are willing to pay a little more for the green bond, but now they know that they will be able to buy [that same green bond] cheaper in a few days, and they adjust to the market,” he explains. In addition, the reduction of the greenium also contributes to another important factor that greatly affects the primary market, adds Romero: ” The central banks are withdrawing the bond repurchase programs, so that an important part of the demand has disappeared.”

This expert emphasizes that, once the market stabilizes and volatility is reduced, “the greenium will probably come back” .

Regarding the profitability offered by the green debt, the president of Ofiso warns that, with that 4.1%, this asset offers a clear buying opportunity , since this situation will not last: as the markets normalize , this yield should tend to equal or be below that of conventional bonds.

“Precautionary Exercise”
As CBI analysts explain in the report Green bond pricing in the primary market for the first half of 2022, “the relatively low incidence of greenium in the first half of the year is not bad news for the green bond market in but rather reflects an exercise of extreme caution by investors, due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty”.

Despite everything, the demand for this type of issue continued to exceed supply, according to this study. Green bond placements in euros reached an oversubscription of 3.1 times , compared to 2.4 times for their vanilla equivalents . Hence, green bonds managed to narrow the spread by 18.2 basis points (during the pricing process) and conventional bonds did so by somewhat less, 16.4 basis points.

“The rate hikes (…) plagued the market with anecdotes of issuers canceling their issues at the last minute,” according to the CBI

In the case of placements in dollars, the average demand for green bonds was 3.8 times higher than the supply, compared to 2.7 times for their conventional counterparts. And the spread was 29.3 basis points for green, and 22.5 points for vanilla . Read also: Sustainable bonds are today more ‘appetizing’ after falls.

The largest oversubscription in the first half of the year was received by an issue of KfW -the State Development Bank of the Federal Republic of Germany-, with an issue of 3,000 million euros over 10 years that received requests for 34,000 million (11, 3 times more). It is not a historical record: the highest oversubscription, with data from 2016, is held by Prologis, with 14 times, and it cannot be forgotten that the issuance of the first green bond of the Kingdom of Spain in September 2021 received requests for 60,000 million, 12 times what is offered .

The volume of emissions also suffered in the first half of 2022 , a year marked by the war in Ukraine and the consequent energy crisis, which exacerbated inflation. “Rise rates and high volatility (…) plagued the market with anecdotes of issuers canceling placements at the last minute ,” reads the CBI report.

Ibex Firms That Most Improve Their ESG Score In 2022

Investors are scrutinizing environmental , social and governance (ESG) issues like never before. Hence, listed companies are paying more attention than ever to non-financial factors. 2022 is proving to be a crucial year for sustainable investing, largely due to the regulatory barrage coming from Europe.

A regulatory tsunami that has already increased the weight of responsible assets in the set of assets under management in Europe: at the end of June, more than 50% of the assets in funds marketed in the EU were already ESG, according to the data from Morningstar. Visit the specialized portal elEconomista Sustainable investment and ESG.

If we focus on the sustainability scores obtained by the 35 Ibex companies , the leader is Aena , in the eyes of Sustainalytics (an ESG data provider integrated into Morningstar ). The airport manager is the only company in the Spanish index that presents a zero level of sustainability risk. Next, with a very low level of risk, are Redeia , Merlin and Inditex.

Sustainalytics measures the level of ESG risks that may affect the business and that are not being managed by the company. The lower the grade, the better (less risks the company faces). There are not many companies that manage to drop below 10 points, and even fewer those that exceed 30.

Beyond that group of advanced companies are those other firms that, without necessarily starting from a good grade, have made notable progress in their sustainable rating so far in 2022. One of them is, precisely, Aena . She did already have a good grade as a starting point, which has not prevented her from being the Ibex that most improved her rating in 2022 (from 11.2 to 8.5 points), going from a low risk to an invaluable one .

Grifols , Endesa , Sacyr and Acciona have also changed for the better . All four have gone from presenting a medium level of risk to a low one . This improvement is especially notable at Grifols , which has gone from 21.8 points to 18.1 in an industry in which the average score is 30.4 ( high risk ). Morningstar details that the issues that generate ESG controversies in the case of Grifols are related to employees and customers .

The manufacturer of plasma products, without being a leader in sustainability, has seen an improvement in the score given by several suppliers , not just Morningstar. S&P Global assigns it an ESG score of 60 out of 100. Without being outstanding, it has risen consistently in the last three years (in 2019, the company failed, giving S&P 27 points out of 100).

Endesa is another of the listed companies that goes from medium to low risk in 2022, standing at 17.2 points. In your case, among the sustainable issues that can affect your business are your level of emissions and waste , Morningstar specifies.

It has also crossed the barrier towards Sacyr’s low risk, which cuts (and therefore improves) its score to 18.9. Morningstar points out that the most controversial issues that the company can face have to do with business ethics and with customers . Like Grifols, it has consistently managed to improve the score assigned to it by S&P over the three-year period (in 2019, it failed with 22 points out of 100, and now it obtains 61).

Acciona is another of the listed companies that have jumped a step in ESG this year. She goes from medium to low risk, according to Morningstar, and also receives a good rating from S & P Global, which gives her 88 points. In addition, Acciona receives a double A sustainability rating for a reference supplier such as Msci, which, without being an AAA , does place it as a leader in its sector according to ESG criteria. Also read: Acciona, BBVA and Indra, gold medals in sustainability for S&P Global.

Behind them are other companies – Indra , Cellnex , Rovi , CaixaBank …- which, although they have significantly improved their Morningstar rating, have not managed to change their risk level. In this section, Indra draws attention , which, in a very complex year due to the controversy that arose within its board ( with the stampede of its independent directors at the meeting last June) has managed to improve its grade . It is still at medium risk, but it has dropped to 15.4 points, from 12.9 at the beginning of the year.

Grifols, Talgo, Técnicas Reunidas Give Up Their Executive Power

The story of many successful Spanish companies began at home. Over time, especially in recent years, some owner families have decided to cede their executive power to technical and external profiles. A decision that does not imply that it is better than another, but that is sometimes necessary to make when things go wrong.

The latest case has been that of Grifols , who at the beginning of the week decided to appoint an executive president, Steven Mayer, who would command the operations that the family had carried out until now. The decision came to alleviate debt levels that drown the company. The family, however, remains in management through the two CEOs of the pharmaceutical company, Víctor and Raimon Grifols.

Talgo or Técnicas Reunidas have recently made similar decisions. The Oriol family appointed Gonzalo Urquijo as chief executive in 2021, leaving José María de Oriol as non-executive vice president. Carlos Palacios Oriol is Executive Chairman. For its part, the Lladó family, owner of Técnicas Reunidas, appointed Eduardo San Miguel at the beginning of this year as CEO, a role carried out by Chairman Juan Lladó.

These examples are a trend in recent years in many of the main companies in the country. Ferrovial did it two decades ago, although Rafael del Pino remains as executive president. A similar situation occurs in Alsa, in the hands of the Cosmen family. Jorge Cosmen continues as president, but Francisco Iglesias rose to the position of CEO in 2016.

Grupo Antolín has Ramón Sotomayor as its CEO and Ernesto Antolín as president. In Banca March, the executive presidency corresponds to Juan March de la Lastra, but he shares stripes with Rita Rodríguez, executive vice president, and José Luis Acea, CEO. Artur Carulla Mas relieved a year ago in the presidency of Agrolimen (Gallina Blanca), a company that has had Joan Cornudella as CEO since 2009. A similar model follows Roca Group.

Almirall embarked on the path of outsourcing executive powers (CEO) and not even the succession in the Gallardo family has changed the bet. The clan reserves the presidency, but from a non-executive position. The same goes for Coca-Cola European Partners, in which Sol Daurella is president and Damian Gammell CEO.

Gestamp and El Corte Inglés
At Gestamp and El Corte Inglés, the families of reference gave up part of their power years ago, but in recent times they have recovered it. President Francisco Riberas assumed the functions of CEO again in 2020 after the resignation of Francisco López Peña. And Marta Álvarez, president of El Corte Inglés, has created an executive committee of five members after the resignation of Víctor del Pozo in March as CEO -without a substitute-.

There are families that concentrate all the executive control in their companies. This is the case of Rovi, commanded by the López-Belmonte family. Now it is the two sons of the founder, Juan and Javier, who are in control. In the Meliá hotel company, the Escarrers control capital and management, as do the Entrecanales in Acciona, Juan Roig in Mercadona, the Gut in Prosegur, the Rubiralta in Celsa, Demetrio Carceller in Dammo Marc Puig in Puig. .

There are cases for all tastes. In fact, Inditex took a reverse path a few months ago. Amancio Ortega controls 59.2% of the capital and his daughter Marta has been in charge as non-executive president since April, when she replaced Pablo Isla, although he did have executive functions. Óscar García Maceiras is the CEO. Another curious case is that of Banco Santander. The entity has been directed by the Botín saga since the beginning of the 20th century, when Emilio Botín Sanz de Sautuola founded it. Today the participation of the family is minimal, but since 2014 Ana Botín has been in charge.

Companies ceding executive power
Grifols: Steven Mayer

The Grifols family, in its different branches, controls around 30% of the pharmaceutical company’s capital through different investment vehicles. After the Covid pandemic, the pharmaceutical company has not managed to straighten the course and the company has been falling in the markets. As a consequence, a non-family chief executive, Steven Mayer, was appointed earlier this week. All in all, there are still two Grifols within the decision-making scheme. Both Víctor and Raimon remain CEOs of the company after the latest movements.

Gathered Techniques: Eduardo San Miguel

José Lladó founded Técnicas Reunidas with other businessmen 62 years ago. Today the Lladó family is a benchmark shareholder in Spanish engineering with a 37.2% stake in the capital. In 2020, Lladó handed over the executive presidency to his son Juan Lladó, who maintained the functions of CEO that he already exercised. However, at the beginning of this year he ceded part of his executive power with the appointment as CEO of the until then financial director Eduardo San Miguel. However, he does not have a seat on the board of directors chaired by Juan Lladó.

Talgo: Gonzalo Urquijo

Through Pegaso Transportation -a company in which the Trilantic fund dominates- the Oriol family holds 35% of Talgo’s capital. For several generations, the Oriols have been at the helm of the company, both from the presidency, where Carlos de Palacio Oriol currently follows, and from the position of CEO. In the latter case, in March 2021, the national train manufacturer appointed an outsider, Gonzalo Urquijo, as the company’s chief executive while José María de Oriol, until then CEO, moved to the position of non-executive vice president.

Ferrovial: Ignacio Madridejos

Rafael del Pino is Ferrovial’s main shareholder with 20% of the capital and has held the executive chairmanship since his father handed it over to him in 2000 -he had been CEO since 1992-. Several of his brothers remain shareholders, with the Del Pino family adding a third. In 2002, Joaquín Ayuso was appointed CEO, sharing executive powers with the Chairman. He remained in office until 2009, when Del Pino turned to a man from the house, Íñigo Meirás, to be his number two. In 2019, he was succeeded by Ignacio Madridejos, from Cemex USA.

Almirall: Gianfranco Nazzi

The Catalan pharmaceutical company began to entrust its executive command a few years ago. Since 2021, Gianfranco Nazzi has held the position of CEO. All in all, the Gallardo family controls almost 60% of the company’s capital through two investment vehicles. As the maximum representative of the clan within the structure of the pharmaceutical company is Carlos Gallardo, son of the historic leader Jorge. The position he holds is that of non-executive president. The succession happened a few months ago, in May of this year, after the resignation of his father.

Inditex: Oscar Garcia Maceiras

Amancio Ortega is not only the founder of the textile giant Inditex, he also controls 59.2% of the capital. Since April of this year, his youngest daughter, Marta Ortega, has held the presidency after the departure of Pablo Isla. However, contrary to what happened with his predecessor, his functions are limited and he does not have executive powers. The same day that the arrival to the presidency of the little girl from the Ortega clan was announced, the appointment of a new CEO was announced, Óscar García Maceiras, who is the one who holds executive power within the owner of Zara.

The English Court: Marta Alvarez

El Corte Inglés has suffered several corporate ups and downs in recent years. In 2019, after the departure of Dimas Gimeno from the textile group, Marta Álvarez, heir to the family company, was appointed non-executive president. Power was held jointly by Jesús Nuño de la Rosa and Víctor del Pozo. After the departure of the first, Del Pozo was left alone. However, at the beginning of 2022, this executive also left the company and Álvarez remained in charge. In September, she created an executive commission that she presides over and has two directors and the two general directors.

Coca-Cola: Damian Gammell

Years ago, international growth and listing on the stock market led to the professionalization of the executive positions of the current bottler Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, with Damian Gammell as CEO. Sol Daurella (third generation) acts as president on behalf of the company’s largest shareholder, which is the Catalan Daurella family, which built its multinational empire from the Cobega bottler in Barcelona, ​​which it grew through acquisitions on the Peninsula, Europe and the rest of the world.

Banca March: Jose Luis Acea

Banca March, head of the Corporación Financiera Alba holding company, has shared executive controls between the family and the firm’s directors. Its capital is distributed among the children of Juan March: Juan (33.3%), Carlos (33.3%), Gloria (16.6%) and Leonor March Delgado (16.6%). In 2015 Carlos March Delgado gave the pass to his son Juan March de la Lastra in the executive presidency after holding the reins for four decades. March de la Lastra is accompanied on the front line as Executive Vice President Rita Rodríguez and José Luis Acea as CEO.

Family-run businesses
Rovi: Juan Lopez-Belmonte

The López-Belmonte family, through the Norbel Investments vehicle, controls 55.19% of the capital of the pharmaceutical company Rovi. For many years, Juan López-Belmonte Sr. ran the company and made it known to the world. During his presidency, his sons Juan and Javier also participated in the company’s important decisions, the first from the position of CEO and the second from the position of CFO. A little over a year ago, Juan Sr. passed away and since then his son Juan is president and his other son Javier is vice president, both with full powers.

Gestamp: Francisco J. Riberas

The case of Gestamp is one of the examples of family businesses run by the Riberas family itself. This, headed by Francisco J. Riberas Mera and his brother Jon, owns 73.76% of the capital of the multinational automotive components company. A dominant position that they did not lose even when the company debuted on the stock market in 2017. Although they did have to distribute executive functions. This was what happened with Francisco López Peña, who was then appointed CEO of the company, a position he held until 2020, when he resigned from the position.

Prosegur: Christian Gut Revoredo

The Revoredo family holds the leadership of the Prosegur company. As president is Helena Revoredo Delvecchio and as executive vice president and CEO is her eldest son, Christian Gut Revoredo. Helena Revoredo Delvecchio has 325,918,244 voting rights, through Gubel, SL and Prorevosa, SL, which represents 59.409% of the total. For her part, Christian has 0.3%. The other family representation that is on the Board of Directors is that of Chantal, who acts as a member on behalf of Gubel.

Acciona: Jose Manuel Entrecanales

José Manuel Entrecanales Domecq has been the president and CEO of Acciona since 2004, when José María Entrecanales de Azcárate handed over the baton. His cousin, Juan Ignacio Entrecanales Franco, then assumed the executive vice-presidency that was held by his father, Juan Entrecanales de Azcárate. The two cousins ​​-third generation- have maintained the executive controls of Acciona -successfully- and shareholder control of the group, to the point that they have syndicated the shares of the two families. Entrecanales Franco have 29% and Entrecanales Domecq 26.1%, totaling 55.1%.

Melia: Gabriel Escarrer

The hotel group was founded in 1957 by Gabriel Escarrer Juliá and 65 years later power is still in the hands of the family. Currently more than 55% of the capital is in the hands of the Escarrer saga through various companies. The founder is listed as non-executive chairman and external proprietary director, while his son Gabriel Escarrer Jaume is the executive vice president and CEO. Until last February, María Antonia Escarrer, daughter of the founder and sister of the CEO, was also on the group’s Board of Directors.

Mercadona: Juan Roig

The Mercadona distribution chain is 100% managed by Juan Roig Alfonso, president of the company since 1981. In addition, his wife, Hortesina Mª Herrero Chacón, is the vice president of the company. Within the same Board of Directors, the Secretary of the Board is their daughter, Carolina Roig Herrero. Likewise, his other daughters, Hortensia, Amparo and Juana Ruig are the members of the company together with Fernando Roig Alfonso, Juan Roig’s brother. In the Audit Committee, the president is his daughter Juana Roig and the Secretary is his other daughter, Carolina.

The Working Middle Class Already Loses 20% Of Its Net Income

I have looked in detail at the Budgets in search of aid to the middle and working classes that the President of the Government preaches and I have not found any. On the contrary, it is very damaged.

The Treasury plans to enter 113,123 million for personal income tax next year, of which 60% comes from these middle classes. The figure represents an increase of more than 8,000 million compared to this year ( +7.7% ). The improvement is not due to job creation (the unemployment rate will hardly be reduced by half a point, in the most optimistic forecasts), but to inflation and the increase in social contributions to pay pensions. In other words, the increase in collection will come mainly from the revaluation of the wages of these workers.

The problem is that inflation is a crusher of middle and low incomes . Those with the lowest incomes are the most affected, because they allocate a higher percentage of their income to the consumption of food and basic necessities. The average loss of purchasing power estimated for this exercise is around 12% on average.

The working class, whom the Government wants to protect, will be doubly harmed because, to the loss of purchasing power, we must add that they will pay more taxes, because the Treasury refuses to update the IRPF rates.

In 2022 and 2023, the middle classes will contribute 12% more to public coffers for this reason. There is no tax relief anywhere. Between one thing and another, inflation and taxes will take away more than 20% of the disposable income of the working class, an outrage.

Sánchez says one thing and then does another. The beneficiaries of his policy are not the middle class, but large groups such as pensioners, civil servants, recipients of basic income or users of public transport. The Treasury includes the items destined for these groups within the social spending chapter, which grows at double digits, 10.5% (to exceed 266,000 million).

According to the document distributed by the Treasury, there are 17.7 million people , not including mothers with children under three years of age, who will benefit from some type of gift or official aid from the Government , which is equivalent to 46% of the census electoral. One in two voters will be favored on the eve of a year in which regional and local elections will be held and, finally, general elections.

And the electoral raffle is not yet closed, because the delivery of the checks for the purchase of parliamentary support from the coalition partners, such as ERC, Bildu or the PNV, is still pending.

The State, instead of helping to contain consumer prices, will thus become one of its promoters thanks to its expansionary policy. In times of crisis like the one that is coming, the role of the Government should be to lend a hand like any citizen and cut current spending. This time the opposite is done. The spending ceiling reaches the third consecutive absolute record, with an increase of 1.9% (173,065 million), without counting the Next Generation funds .

The Treasury puts at risk with this policy the income pact defended by the first vice president, Nadia Calviño, by agreeing to a 9.5% increase for civil servants for the next three years, well above the 2.5% annual rate recommended for the rest of the active population. Although the increase that most blushes is that of retirees (8.5%), because it is not an occasional rise, but rather it remains in the structure of the cost of pensions for life. Other countries such as Portugal approved extraordinary payments to deal with this extraordinary situation.

All this spending exuberance would not be worrying if we had healthy accounts and a stable economic situation. Treasury presumes that the public deficit will be reduced by 3.9% in 2023 and 3% in 2024. It is already known that the paper holds everything, but once again the accounts are not clear.

The total of the financial income of the State will increase 6% next year , up to 307,446 million. The items that grew the most were Personal Income Tax and Companies, with increases of 7.7%. In the case of Income Tax, the Government has had to pull an increase in social contributions, without even consulting the social agents, to balance the accounts.

The maximum contributions will rise by more than half a point (8.6%) to pay for pensions. In this way, labor costs become more expensive at a time when companies already suffer high costs due to inflation or energy. I do not believe that the unemployment rate is going to drop six tenths (from 12.8% to 12.2%) as Montero predicts, the logical thing is that it will increase.

Montero assures that the accounts are conservative, because in tax revenues he has not accounted for the 3,500 million for the extraordinary taxes on banks and energy companies, nor the 1,500 million for the solidarity tax of the rich.

Some 5,000 million are saved , which together with the extra tax income of almost 17,422 million, would create a cushion of about 22,500 million for unforeseen events. The problem is that with the exception of the subsidized transport bonus, the Budget does not include any package measure to contain energy costs, such as the gasoline subsidy or the VAT reductions on gas and electricity, which will cost some 15,000 million this year. Are you going to suppress them in an election year and with Putin threatening to permanently close the gas tap this winter? The mattress will remain as a mat after deducting the cost of the new measures.

But it is even worse, because there is no guarantee that the economy will grow 2.1% in 2023. The official estimate is seven or eight tenths higher than that of the Bank of Spain or the Fiscal Authority (AIReF).

The minutes of the last meeting of the ECB, in which it agreed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points , make the hair stand on end. A good part of the members of his council, it must be remembered that most of them are central bank governors, warned of a deep recession with high inflation rates, the worst possible scenario.

The growth of the Spanish economy next year has very weak foundations, it totally depends on the funds that will arrive from Europe. Calviño estimates its impact at 2.8% of GDP , seven tenths more than the official growth forecast. And what will happen to consumption and other investments when the ECB raises interest rates to 3% or 4%, more than triple the current level?

The macroeconomic scenario is seized with pins, the Budgets are based on an increase in taxes for the working middle classes and the rich and on a forecast of tax revenues that are the milkmaid’s account, they can be shattered in a few months.

P.S. -One of the operations that arouses the most interest is the shareholder reorganization of Naturgy. The head of the CVC fund, Javier de Jaime, owner of 20% of the Hispanic gas company, assured on Thursday that he does not have a deadline for his departure. His statements, far from reassuring, cause more concern, because CVC could become the ally of the future buyer of the other 20% of Naturgy, in the hands of the US fund GIP. The market points to Total Energies, the French oil company that has already set foot in our country with the acquisition of EDP assets.

The possible shareholder movements, together with the delay in the Gemini project, launched by its president, Francisco Reynés, to divide the multinational in two, complicate the entry into play of the only Spanish candidate who could be interested in the acquisition of the non-regulated business: Repsol .

The oil company chaired by Antonio Brufau has an enviable treasury of some 11,000 million, after the sale of 25% of its crude oil production assets for almost 5,000 million (3,500 discounted the debt). But an operation on the total of Naturgy, valued at around 22,000 million, would require significant leverage at a time when indebtedness is highly penalized in the financial markets.

OPEC+ Addresses A Decline In Oil Production

There are several factors that are conditioning the price of oil in recent days. The movements of the central banks depress the market, which affect the drop in global demand forecasts and, therefore, sink the price of crude oil, which has come to quote at levels not seen since January -before the Russian invasion from Ukraine-. A price that is not attractive for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its associated partners (with Russia to its credit) as they have already stated on previous occasions.

On October 5, the crude cartel meets again with the Brent barrel, a benchmark in Europe, bouncing 6.5% from the 84 dollars that it drilled on September 27, although it remains below 90 dollars. And it is not ruled out that OPEC + announces a substantial cut in its production at this meeting.

Already in the previous meeting, the cartel changed its roadmap from a slow but progressive increase in crude oil pumped -in line with the recovery after the coronavirus pandemic- to the slight cut announced in early September (of 100,000 barrels per day during September). . A modest but symbolic cut that shows that the organization is willing to further cut black gold production if the price of oil does not recover or demand continues to drop.

In a survey conducted by Bloomberg of 16 operators, all but one agree that OPEC+ will cut production in October. And firms like UBS or JP Morgan dare to forecast a cut of half a million barrels per day – compared to the 400,000 that have been increasing every monthuntil last August. Moreover, sources included in the same study assure that Russia would have asked its partners to increase the cut to one million barrels.

The country has benefited to date from the context of high prices, despite the fact that the crude oil sold to the rest of the Western countries has decreased in the year due to the sanctions imposed. And it is that Putin seeks to squeeze the price of his crude oil before the total European veto becomes effective at the end of this year and Russia has to find another partner to buy oil from him. In fact, on Tuesday the Ecofin meets where the European Union economy ministers will address precisely the energy situation in the common area and will assess the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

At the moment, the market is already taking into account the rise in OPEC+ and even so, the consensus expects Brent to close the last quarter of the year at 85 dollars , with the average for 2022 below 100 per barrel taking into account the level of inventories in the US and the strength of the dollar against the rest of world currencies and as a favorite haven asset for investors.

Keys to central banks
The coming week will not be loaded with central bank decisions like the second half of September. Only the Fed of New Zealand will review interest rates in the country, which is presumed to rise to 3.5%. However, the European Central Bank will publish its minutes of the last meeting on Thursday, in which an increase of 75 basis points was announced in a context in which inflation in the eurozone climbed to 10% in September.

In addition, manufacturing production and sales data will be published both in Europe and in the United Kingdom and the United States. Clues that can guide central banks to what extent their rate hikes are holding back the economy as it struggles to contain prices. Another data that is expected in the United States will be the unemployment rate for September in the country, while in China they will celebrate throughout the week -the Golden Week- for the anniversary of the formation of the People’s Republic of China.

Micron Sounds The Alarm Of The Recession In The US

The microchip maker has announced a notable decline in demand for semiconductors, and as a result has cut its revenue forecasts and also its capital investment. Its action, heavily punished this year, has a potential of 40% . | All about the Tressis Cartera Eco30 fund , advised by elEconomista .

Can Europe be autonomous? It depends for energy on Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or Algeria, and now more and more on the United States. It also needs Asian and North American suppliers of electronic components. “[Vladímir Putin] invaded [Ukraine] and left Europe in the hands of the US . A criminal invasion, yes, but also absolute stupidity, strengthening the power of the US,” said the linguist and philosopher Noam Chomsky a few days ago on Cadena be .

The words of the federalist Altiero Spinelli still resonate when he said, in 1947, that “if the Europeans cannot seize the opportunity [to create a union], the United States will be increasingly tempted to pass from the liberal alternative to that of imperialism “.

To the pressure from Washington is now added that of Beijing. “There is a real danger that Europeans will be caught in the middle of Sino-American competition ,” political scientist Jonathan Hackenbroich, linked to the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in 2020. “ European sovereignty must mean being able to decide for ourselves about our interests and negotiate effectively within an interdependent system through credible countermeasures against hostile threats and actions,” the expert said.

microchip dependency
The European Union wants to increase the production of semiconductors in Europe and for it to account for 20% of the world share in 2030. In the remaining 80%, there are producers such as Micron Technology : the largest manufacturer of data storage memories in the US.

The tech company this week gave a weak forecast for the current quarter (the first of its 2023 fiscal year): $2 billion less in sales than analysts estimated; “renewing concerns that demand for personal computers and smartphones is falling,” reported Bloomberg .

Inflation and recession fears — plus a post-pandemic return to the office — have slowed device purchases, leaving memory buyers with unused stockpiles of chips . As part of its response to lower demand, Micron will cut capital spending by 30% in its fiscal year 2023, until inventories normalize. However, they expect conditions to improve from May.

After earning €9 billion in fiscal 2022, Micron’s net profit will fall 60% in fiscal 2023 to €3.6 billion. In terms of revenue, after the historical figure of 2022, a decrease of 20% is expected in 2023 to 25,300 million.

Micron stock, which receives a buy recommendation, has lost 45% since January and has a 40% upside potential , according to the market consensus collected by FactSet, with which it could reach 70 dollars in 12 months. Thus, the price/earnings ratio of the US company is 6 times in 2022 and 13 times in 2023.