The cold, rain and snowfall that have been occurring in various parts of the country in recent days seem to have left behind that late summer , with temperatures too warm for the month of November.
In fact, these days we can hear or read terms such as ‘polar vortex’, ‘air lock’ and even ‘beast from the east’, in relation to the possibility that a cold continental air mass could enter from Russia and Scandinavia. .
In any case, everything seems to indicate that the temperatures will register a notable drop in the coming days. “In the final stretch of the week, night frosts may be the protagonists, since there may be the lowest temperatures so far in the autumn-winter season . It will freeze in most of the cities in the northern interior,” says the meteorologist Roberto Granda in his prediction for eltiempo.es .
In addition, adds the meteorologist, the thermometers may hit bottom on Saturday, December 3, at which time the temperature will begin to rise . From now on, “we would not talk so much about cold but about rain with the arrival of several storms.”
And the rest of winter?
As explained by eltiempo.es , the average temperature for the winter months is 7.9 ºC , while the average rainfall is 205 mm. January is usually the coldest month, while December, the rainiest.
With these data as a reference, the meteorologists from eltiempo.es predict that during this winter we will have temperatures slightly above normal throughout the country . If fulfilled, temperatures would follow the same pattern as in the last ten years, when temperatures have always registered positive (warmer) anomalies in our country. Since the year 2000, thirteen years have shown these same anomalies.
As for the rainfall, it is expected that it rains a little less than normal in the north , while more precipitation would only be recorded in both archipelagos. In the rest of the country, the rains would be at values similar to the average.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), for its part, uses terciles to express its seasonal prediction. These three tertiles (upper, central, and lower) reflect the probabilities that temperatures or rainfall are higher, the same, or lower than the values considered normal or usual.
Thus, the agency forecasts a greater probability (between 40 and 50%) that the temperature will be in the upper tercile (warmer) in all of Spain , giving even more possibilities to the eastern and Balearic areas. The chances of temperatures being positioned in the central terciles are at 35 and 30%, respectively, while the probabilities that they are in the lower (colder) terciles are currently at 25 and 20%, respectively.
As for the rains, the AEMET forecast differs a little from that of eltiempo.es . Although they calculate that it will rain the same in most of the country and a little more in both archipelagos, AEMET forecasts that there is a 45% chance that in the Valencian Community, in the Region of Murcia and in eastern Andalusia the terciles are higher (more rain).